Monday, October 17, 2016

CNN says the race is still close in 3 battleground states! Except...

"The race is still close in three battleground states!" CNN touts...

Except CNN completely omits the biggest thing about these three states: Hillary Clinton DOESN'T NEED ANY of those three states to win the Presidency. Trump needs ALL THREE. The three states are North Carolina, Ohio, and Nevada.

The Sad and the Glad.. 

O One of the saddest things about these latest polls is that Trump has NOT seemed to have lost much (if any) traction since all of the women came out and accused him of harassment and assault! Does that mean that the remaining Trump voters actually believe that Trump did not do any of this.. or do they think that a pattern of sexual assault is not important when choosing a President?  Who knows?  (68% of the people polled DO believe that Trump assaulted at least some of these women.) Honesty? You've got to be kidding me... 

Another sad thing is this finding from the CNN polls:  

And honesty continues to be a challenge for Clinton, she lags behind Trump when voters are asked who is more honest and trustworthy in all three states

Huh?  Are people really that oblivious to Politifact's honesty assessment? Or do they just not believe Politifact? Politifact shows that 73% out of Clinton's 270 rated statements are half true, mostly true, or just "true"; whereas only 29% out of Trump's 296 rated statements are half true, mostly true, or just "true".

Onto the three states...

As a whole, Hillary is ahead in North Carolina and Nevada; she and Trump are much closer in Ohio.

From the pollsters at Nate Silver's 538: The 4 most recent polls in North Carolina have Hillary up by 1, up 4, up 4, and up 1.

In Ohio, recent polls show her up 2, up 5, up 9. Trump is up in two polls by 1 and 4. Unfortunately, the most recent poll shows Trump up by 4.

In Nevada, the most recent polls show Clinton up 4, tied, up 6, up 2, up 6, and up 2.

It's possible that Trump has regained a little ground on Clinton over the past few days, as absurd as that seems, but we are looking at CNN polls.  CNN seemed to have under-sampled demographic groups that might have favored Hillary in  a few polls back in September.  I will link to that discussion as soon as I can find it.

The detail demographic breakdown provided at the CNN site is very interesting; married women in Ohio seem to support Trump by a fairly wide margin; married women in North Carolina and Nevada support Hillary.  In all states, unmarried women break for Hillary by a wide margin.


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